News

New paper: @choo: Tracking Pollen and Hayfever in the UK Using Social Media

New paper available online in Sensors.

@choo: Tracking Pollen and Hayfever in the UK Using Social Media

Allergic rhinitis (hayfever) affects a large proportion of the population in the United Kingdom. Although relatively easily treated with medication, symptoms nonetheless have a substantial adverse effect on wellbeing during the summer pollen season. Provision of accurate pollen forecasts can help sufferers to manage their condition and minimise adverse effects. Current pollen forecasts in the UK are based on a sparse network of pollen monitoring stations. Here, we explore the use of “social sensing” (analysis of unsolicited social media content) as an alternative source of pollen and hayfever observations. We use data from the Twitter platform to generate a dynamic spatial map of pollen levels based on user reports of hayfever symptoms. We show that social sensing alone creates a spatiotemporal pollen measurement with remarkable similarity to measurements taken from the established physical pollen monitoring network. This demonstrates that social sensing of pollen can be accurate, relative to current methods, and suggests a variety of future applications of this method to help hayfever sufferers manage their condition.

New paper studying edge weightings in the projection of bipartite networks

New paper available online now.

Cann T.J.B., Weaver I.S., Williams H.T.P. (2019) Is it Correct to Project and Detect? Assessing Performance of Community Detection on Unipartite Projections of Bipartite Networks. In: Aiello L., Cherifi C., Cherifi H., Lambiotte R., Lió P., Rocha L. (eds) Complex Networks and Their Applications VII. COMPLEX NETWORKS 2018. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 812. Springer, Cham

Many real-world systems can be represented by bipartite networks that link two classes of node. However, methods for analysing bipartite networks are not as well-developed as those for unipartite networks. In particular, community detection in bipartite networks is often approached by projecting the network onto a unipartite network incorporating just one of the bipartite node classes. Here we apply a simple model to generate bipartite networks with prescribed community structure and then test the performance of community detection using four different unipartite projection schemes. Several important performance issues emerge from this treatment, particularly when the original bipartite networks have a long-tailed degree distribution. We find that a “hyperbolic” projection scheme mitigates performance issues to some extent, but conclude that care must be taken when interpreting community detection algorithm performance on projected networks. These findings have implications for any scenario where a unipartite projection is analysed in place of a bipartite system, including common applications to online social networks, social media and scientific collaboration networks.

New chapter for Sarah

Having made a great start to her PhD and become a much liked group member, Sarah Menezes has made a tough decision to go back to industry. A good opportunity came up for her nearby and she has gone for it. We wish her well and she will always be welcome to come back for coffee!

Trip to the Amazon jungle (in Seattle)

In October, Hywel gave an invited talk at a really interesting workshop on social capital at Amazon HQ in Seattle, entitled “All Boats Rise”. He spoke about political polarisation as viewed through social media, asking whether the increasing focus on understanding social processes using online data is creating a bias towards apparent polarisation. Given that people with moderate or ambivalent views may be less likely to post political content, social media studies are likely to sample the extreme tails of an opinion distribution that is probably normal, with the moderate majority remaining invisible. This is an idea to test some time in 2019. As well as meeting some cool people at the meeting, including academics, social activists and tech entrepreneurs, Hywel also got to tour the Amazon Spheres.

Recent work: Social Sensing of named storms in the UK and Ireland

Michelle Spruce recently presented some of her research on social sensing of extreme weather events at the Royal Meteorological Society’s public ‘Weatherlive’ conference in November 2018.  She also discusses her work on the ‘Paul Hudson Weather Show’ which broadcasts on BBC Radio Leeds, York, Sheffield, Humberside, Lincolnshire and online in early December.

Her research uses Twitter data collected during the period of the 2017/2018 UK storm season (Autumn 2017 to Spring 2018).  Building on the work already done in the research group on the social sensing of floods and hayfever/pollen, this study aims to determine the social impacts of named storms in the UK and Ireland.  Storms are named when they are forecast to cause moderate to severe impacts. To improve data quality, tweets are filtered for relevance to the named storm event using simple text filters and a more complex Naïve Bayes machine learning approach.  After removing irrelevant tweets, we find peaks in Twitter activity which correspond to the time period of the storm.  Using the filtered data, we also calculate a sentiment score (how positive or negative the tweet text is) over time.  We find tweets becoming less positive during and in the hours after the peak of stormy weather.  Categorisation of tweet content during the storm period also finds more than a quarter of tweets are grouped within the ‘humour category’, and a further fifth of tweets reporting on damage or disruption.  Using the findings from this research will help to better inform impact based weather forecasting and also provides an additional forecast validation tool.

Michelle is hoping to submit her findings to a relevant journal for publication shortly.

Storm Brian tweet density during the storm period 21st October 2017
Sentiment polarity score for Ex-Hurricane Ophelia tweets vs Tweet count