Posted by ccld201
23 October 2024The Ukrainian president’s speech on 24 September 2024, at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly focused on several key issues: nuclear security, the Peace Formula and Peace Summit, the peace plan proposed by Brazil and China, and Russian imperialism[1]. The last two points are crucial within the context of other statements, including one by UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
“China-Brazil Six-Point Consensus”[2] and Trust Issues with China
In his speech, Zelensky posed a critical question: “When the Chinese-Brazilian duo tries to grow into a choir of voices – with someone in Europe, with someone in Africa, saying something alternative to a full and just peace, the question arises – what is the true interest?” This highlights Ukraine’s distrust towards China. At least there are two reasons why Ukraine doesn’t and cannot trust China and its peace initiatives, including the “six-point consensus” which was signed on 23 May 2024 in Beijing.
First, from the geopolitical perspective,China has benefited from the war in Ukraine by diverting Western attention from the Taiwan issue and potentially weakening US military capabilities in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, Taiwan is likely not the only target of China’s ambitions, given its militarization and creeping annexation of territories in the South China Sea. Second, China is a main ally of Russia, as well as main source of military and other technologies. China supplies 60% of the foreign components for Russian weapons[3]. Another weapons supplier to Russia, North Korea, is often considered as a Chinese proxy in East Asia, or at least as a buffer state for China[4].
Recently, Ukraine’s position was reaffirmed by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to information about Switzerland’s support for the so-called “China-Brazil six-point consensus” [5]. According to the statement of the Ukrainian Association of South Africa, “Russia has bombed Ukrainian territory, killed civilians and abducted children […] and equating the aggressor with the victim undermines human rights and a rules-based order”[6].
Estonian President, Alar Karis, expressed similar sentiments regarding the Brazil-China initiative in his address to the General Assembly (24 September 2024): “Deplorably, the smooth talk about dialogue and the importance for Ukraine and Russia to engage in direct peace talks only supports the Russian cause. Especially when those so-called peace proposals fail to recognize who launched the aggression and who is suffering” [7].
China’s Influence in Brazil and Its Implications for Ukraine
The peace initiative by Brazil, a BRICS member and representative of the Global South (as viewed by China and Russia[8]), is indeed backed by China. Brazilian President Lula da Silva is known for his pro-Chinese stance and aligns with China on the Ukrainian issue. Since 2009, Lula has transformed China into Brazil’s main trading partner, a status that remains unchanged in 2024. For instance, 42% of Chinese investment in Latin America is directed to Brazil, and Brazil exports to China about 70% of its soybeans[9]. China also exploits strategic minerals like Brazilian niobium, which is critical for hypersonic weapons and the aerospace industry.
Obviously, Ukraine is acutely aware of China’s key role in the war, although Zelensky mentioned only Iran and North Korea in his address. The third point of the “six-point consensus” proposes efforts to “increase humanitarian assistance to relevant regions and prevent a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale”, without mentioning Ukrainian sovereignty and de-occupation of Ukrainian territories. Coming from a state continuing genocide in Xinjiang and Tibet and political repression in Hong Kong, so-called humanitarian initiatives look absolutely hypocritical.
It is noteworthy that Zelensky slammed such proposals, stating they “hearken back to the era of colonialism and imperialism”.[10]
Russian Imperialism
At the UN Security Council session on September 24th, David Lammy also accused Vladimir Putin of imperialism and plans to expand his “mafia state into a mafia empire”[11]. Indeed, Putin’s regime has been attempting to restore the Soviet empire throughout the first quarter of the 21st century, resorting to armed aggression against neighbouring states in 2008 (invasion of Georgia), 2014 (annexation of Ukrainian Crimea), and 2022 (Ukraine). The idea of resurrecting an imperial power from the Vistula to the Pacific was embedded in Russia’s new military doctrine, approved by Putin on April 21, 2000[12], just a few months after he became acting president of Russia. The Kremlin’s doctrine defines all countries of the former USSR with Russian communities as inalienable parts of the “Russian world”.
In his address to the UN General Assembly (on 24 September 2024), President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs mentioned fifty years of Soviet occupation of his country and stated that “no single state should have veto power in the United Nations Security Council”[13]. He also highlighted the need for the UN to take a more active stand on the forcible deportations and illegal adoptions of Ukrainian children to Russia. Furthermore, he encouraged other countries to support the proposal to establish a Special Tribunal to prosecute the main perpetrators of the crime of aggression. These proposals have never been more relevant than they are today.
The Baltic states are acutely aware that Russia’s plans to gather the “Russian world” apply to them as well. If Putin’s blitzkrieg in early 2022 had been successful, it is plausible to assume that other neighbouring states could have been targeted by Russia, such as Moldova, which has an unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, a Russian puppet entity that shares a border with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, ordinary people in Westen Europe, including the UK, also have some reasons to worry. According to the director general of MI5, the Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) “in particular is on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”[14].
Conclusion
To summarize, any “deal” with Putin’s mafia regime, especially on its terms, would signify appeasement of aggressors, reminiscent of the policies seen before World War II. It would represent a capitulation to an authoritarian regime and deliver another blow to the already fragile structure of the international legal order. Otherwise, the historian David Thomson’s statement about the League of Nations[15] could be paraphrased as: ‘Inactivity and ineffectiveness in Europe encouraged aggressors in Asia to plan similar acts of defiance’.
The international community needs to actively protect the Ukrainian people and hold those responsible accountable, as well as in China, North Korea, Iran, Israel and other states. We must firmly oppose such concessions and uphold the respect for fundamental human rights everywhere, uniting to resist authoritarianism and protect the integrity of international law.
William Ashville is a free-lance journalist.
[1] ‘There can be no just peace without Ukraine’ — Zelensky’s full speech at the UN General Assembly (kyivindependent.com)
[2] Brazil and China present joint proposal for peace negotiations with the participation of Russia and Ukraine — Planalto (www.gov.br)
[3]https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/china-contributes-60-of-russian-weapons-foreign-components-says-ukraine (September 26, 2024)
[4] Understanding the China-North Korea Relationship (cfr.org)
[5] Foreign Ministry Comment on Switzerland’s Support for the So-Called “China-Brazil Consensus” | Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (mfa.gov.ua)
[6] Ukrainians alarmed by Pretoria’s support for ‘destructive’ China-Brazil peace plan (msn.com)
[7] https://gadebate.un.org/sites/default/files/gastatements/79/ee_en.pdf
[8] In his statement at the UN SC mentioned: “Russia claims to stand for the Global South…”.
[9] Sabina Nicholls. Brazil and China: Asymmetric and Troubling Relationship – PART I – Diálogo Américas (dialogo-americas.com) (May 17, 2024)
[10] Zelenskyy slams ‘colonial’ peace proposal to war with Russia in UN speech – POLITICO
[11] “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is in his interest alone – to expand his mafia state into a mafia empire”: UK statement at the UN Security Council – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
[12] The full text at https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000-05/russias-military-doctrine
[13] Statement by Edgars Rinkēvičs, President of the Republic of Latvia, at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly | Valsts prezidenta kanceleja
[14] Russia on ‘mission to cause mayhem’ on British streets, warns MI5 head – BBC News
[15] Thomson, David (1957) Europe Since Napoleon, London: Longans Green & Co. p. 691