{"id":29,"date":"2025-10-01T12:07:06","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T12:07:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/?page_id=29"},"modified":"2026-04-24T08:28:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T08:28:10","slug":"seminars","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This page contains a collection of titles from recent and upcoming seminars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please contact Isobel Parry<\/a> if you have a suggestion for a seminar speaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summer 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\n

28th April 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frank Kwasniok<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Data-driven anticipation and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous spatio-temporal dynamical modelling<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Data-driven methodologies for identifying, anticipating and predicting critical transitions in high-dimensional model or observational data sets are introduced, based on explicit non-stationary low-order modelling of the tipping dynamics, allowing for dynamical understanding of the underlying tipping mechanism and genuine prediction of the future system state by extrapolation. A set of spatial modes carrying the tipping dynamics are identified and a stochastic model of appropriate complexity is estimated in the subspace spanned by these modes. Analysis of the reconstructed dynamics provides information on the proximity to a bifurcation point and the type of the impending bifurcation. In a first step, we focus on linear stability analysis and derive non-autonomous dynamic and optimal mode decompositions (non-aut-DMD, non-aut-OMD) as extensions of the stationary DMD and OMD. In a second step, we estimate nonlinear stochastic low-order models. Different competing tipping mechanisms can be compared and assessed using likelihood inference and information criteria. The method allows to quantify the likelihood or risk of a critical transition at some point in the future having observed a certain amount of data up to present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n\n\n\n

21st April 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Courtney Quinn\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Rate-induced tipping: searching for the invisible threshold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Identifying and studying rate-induced tipping (r-tipping) remains a challenge in many applications as it requires knowing the tipping threshold of a system as well as identifying when a trajectory will cross that threshold. For low-dimensional systems this threshold is sometimes directly computable as an unstable invariant object. As dimension increases, however, this threshold becomes increasingly difficult to track under various forcing scenarios. In this talk I will review how I became interested in r-tipping and how I am attempting to understand the complexity of it in higher dimensional systems. I will discuss some new results, including examples of r-tipping in delay-differential equations and r-tipping without basin instability. Finally, I will end with an outlook on avenues for identification in general high-dimensional systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The methodologies are here applied to a data set from a simulation of AMOC collapse with a complex climate model, actually a freshwater hosing experiment with the FAMOUS GCM. The AMOC on-state is found to lose stability via a subcritical Hopf bifurcation; however, the transition to the off-state occurs far ahead of the bifurcation point. The early collapse can be explained by a combination of rate-induced and noise-induced tipping.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This page contains a collection of titles from recent and upcoming seminars. Please contact Isobel Parry if you have a suggestion for a seminar speaker. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2733,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSeminars - Tipping Point Seminars<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seminars - Tipping Point Seminars\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This page contains a collection of titles from recent and upcoming seminars. Please contact Isobel Parry if you have a suggestion for a seminar speaker. […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Tipping Point Seminars\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-24T08:28:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/\",\"name\":\"Seminars - Tipping Point Seminars\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-01T12:07:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-24T08:28:10+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Seminars\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/\",\"name\":\"Tipping Point Seminars\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Seminars - Tipping Point Seminars","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Seminars - Tipping Point Seminars","og_description":"This page contains a collection of titles from recent and upcoming seminars. Please contact Isobel Parry if you have a suggestion for a seminar speaker. […]","og_url":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/","og_site_name":"Tipping Point Seminars","article_modified_time":"2026-04-24T08:28:10+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/","url":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/","name":"Seminars - Tipping Point Seminars","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-10-01T12:07:06+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-24T08:28:10+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/seminars\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Seminars"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/#website","url":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/","name":"Tipping Point Seminars","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/29"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2733"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/29\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":205,"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/29\/revisions\/205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.exeter.ac.uk\/tippingpointseminars\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}