Senckenberg Biodiversität- und Klima-Forschungszentrum Frankfurt
16-18 September 2026
Program
Wednesday, 16th September (all times CEST) [Wallace – Room number 1.15]
Chair: Thomas Hickler
| 12:00-13:00 | Arrival / Lunch |
| 13:00-13:10 | Welcome |
| 13:10-15:00 | Introductions (see page below) |
| 15:00-15:30 | BREAK |
| 15:30-17:00 | Impact Area Talks Part I (Vegetation Modeling, Proxies, and Archaeology, see below) |
| 17:00-18:00 | Impact Area Talks Part II (Downscaling and Earth System Models, see below) |
| 18:30 | Dinner (self-organized) |
Thursday, September 17 [Wallace – Room number 1.15]
Chair: Pete Ashwin
| 9:00-10:00 | Keynote Speaker: Adrian Currie “Lost Worlds and Unprecedented Futures” (see below) |
| 10:00-10:30 | BREAK |
| 10:30-12:00 | Breakout Agenda Setting (see below) |
| 12:00-12:45 | Lunch |
| 12:45-14:15 | Breakout Sessions IA (Wallace), 1B (Madagaskar), 1C (Conference room) |
| 14:15-15:45 | Visit to Senckenberg Museum |
| 15:45-16:00 | BREAK |
| 16:00-17:30 | Breakout Sessions IIA (Wallace), IIB (Madagaskar), IIC (Conference room) |
| 17:30 | End of formal programme for the day |
| 18:30 | Workshop Dinner (African Queen Restaurant, Schloßstraße 113) |
Friday, September 18 [Wallace – Room number 1.15]
Chair: Nick Triozzi
| 9:00-10:30 | Breakout Sessions IIIA (Wallace), IIIB (Gondwana), IIIC (Laurasia) |
| 10:30-11:00 | BREAK |
| 11:00-12:00 | Reporting back from Breakout Sessions |
| 12:00-13:00 | Agenda Setting for Future Work |
| 13:00 | Lunch / Depart |
Introductory talks (all participants)
Please give a brief introduction in which you describe your main area of expertise, what you focus on, and what you hope to accomplish in the workshop. Keep to 5 mins maximum, less if you are contributing a talk. If you arrive later, we will arrange for you to do a quick introduction then. If you wish, you can use up to 3 slides: please send to Nick Triozzi in advance
Suggested order as follows:
| Thomas Hickler |
| Madeline McLeod-Reynolds |
| Anna von der Heydt |
| Audrey de Huu |
| Christian Wirths |
| Ignacio del Amo |
| Thomas Kleinen |
| Hans Peeters |
| Nick Triozzi |
| Pir Hoebe |
| Anneli Poska |
| Kaarel Sikk |
| Ramesh Glückler |
| Thomas Giesecke |
| Peter Ashwin |
| Anna Lanka |
| Sneha Kachara |
| Iacopo Longo |
| Catherine Bradshaw |
| Hidir Serkendiz |
| Philip Hess |
| Daniel Bampoh |
| Mateo Duque-Vilegas (online) |
| Julius Eberhard (online) |
| Jan Kolar (online) |
| Caroline Heitz (online) |
| Niklas Boers (online) |
| Adrian Currie (online) |
Impact Area Talks: Focused talks on key areas of focus for the workshop.
Format: 20-minute talks with time for questions
| 15:30 | Vegetation Modeling Thomas Hickler |
| 16:00 | Vegetation Proxies Thomas Giesecke |
| 16:30 | Archaeology Nick Triozzi |
| 17:00 | Downscaling Catherine Bradshaw and Philipp Hess |
| 17:30 | Earth System Modeling Thomas Kleinen |
Breakout Sessions and Agenda Setting
Participants will have the opportunity to pitch project ideas, avenues for collaboration, improvements in workflows and topics for the Breakout Sessions. If you wish to pitch a 5-minute introduction to a possible breakout topic, please prepare 3-5 slides, bring them along and/or talk to one of the organizers. Below is purely a suggestion to start discussion.
Potential breakout topics
- IA and IIA could discuss Q1 (Holocene: IA, pre-Holocene IIA)
- IB and IIB could discuss Q2 (Holocene: IB, pre-Holocene IIB)
- IC and IIC could discuss Q3 (Holocene: IC, pre-Holocene IIC)
- IIIA-C could concentrate on Q 4-6 respectively
Q1. What do Paleoecology and Archaeology need from each other, and from ESMs?
This is the single most repeated theme, phrased from both directions. A cESM modeller asks which climate variables, patterns, and dynamical features from their simulations are most useful for ecosystem and archaeology modelling. A palaeoecologist asks the mirror question: which paleo data formats modellers want (time series? spatially gridded snapshots through time?) and which research questions look interesting from the modelling side. Run it as a structured exchange with a concrete deliverable — a shared variable-and-format wish list — rather than open discussion.
Q2. Experiment design for impact studies: transient vs. time-slice, fast vs. complex ESMs
ESM design is the strongest expertise registered (11 say it’s their main research area, 7 for transient behaviour). One participant states the tension crisply: complex ESMs are usually run as time slices for compute reasons, yet they’re the ones best suited to quantifying extremes — so which short transient cESM runs would be most useful to the archaeology and ecosystem groups? Meanwhile the fESM people want to identify periods for comparing fast and complex models against data, equilibrium vs. transient. That’s a well-populated room with real decisions to make.
Q3. Proxy–model comparison and bias correction
The most detailed single response in your form is about this: proxies give mixed signals because of biological and geological factors in how they form (d18O in speleothems vs. tree rings), and the question is where bias correction should happen — in the model output or in the proxy record — so that claims about climate–society causation rest on something solid. Another participant independently asked how to methodologically combine archaeological and climate data. Good candidate for producing an actual written protocol or decision tree.
Q4. Abrupt change and variability: mechanisms vs. signals
Several requests converge here: AMOC overshoot signals at the Holocene onset, what circulation change could explain synchronous European vegetation change around 10.5 ka, how interannual variability changed over the last 20 ka, vegetation response time to abrupt climate change, AMOC in transient fESM simulations, and dynamical mechanisms for abrupt changes in variability. This pairs your theory/dynamics people with the palaeoecologists, which is otherwise an unlikely pairing.
Q5. What downscaling can and can’t give you
This is not intended as deep dive but a discussion of resolution requirements for impact modelling, how extreme events get defined and evaluated, uncertainty quantification, plus the ML/generative approaches some participants are working on.
Q6. Existing simulations: an opinionated catalogue
Directly requested, and unglamorous enough that it’ll get skipped otherwise: which ESMs are actually going to be used for downscaling, and a “chef’s choice” recommendation on existing simulations — is TraCE-21ka a good choice, why or why not, what’s better?
Scope and Aims of the Workshop
The purpose of this Past to Future Workshop is to ensure that appropriate earth system modelling simulations and downscaling methodology are available for quantifying extreme events and abrupt changes that potentially impact ecosystems and societies. This interdisciplinary workshop will aim to find a common language and focus on challenges to ensure that the paleo-informed modelling (WS1), data analysis (WS2) and theory (WS3) are delivering developments that inform, and are informed by questions that are of critical importance to impacts in ecosystems and societies, including ancient societies (WS4).
We aim to encourage research discussions that cut across two or more of the following four areas:
- Ecosystem challenges: response time of vegetation cover to climate change events, identifying tipping points at different spatial and temporal scales, the role of human land use in ecosystem processes, and integration of palaeoecological proxy data
- Archaeology challenges: bridging climatic, ecological, and archaeological models, quantifying human impacts, and methods for assessing causality
- Downscaling challenges: techniques and bias correction considerations, practical (e.g., computational) limitations
- Transient ESM challenges: potential value for gaining information on frequency and periodicity of climate extremes, seasonality, and interannual variability to meaningfully connect climate models to impact studies
By request, the workshop will be organised according to specific paleo time periods (Pre-Holocene and Holocene to present), with break-out sessions organised around specific methodologies and concepts of interest to participants.
We aim to run this workshop in a way that makes it easy to compile material for the workshop report, deliverable D19.1!
Joint organizers:
- Peter Ashwin (WP16)
- Catherine Bradshaw (WP19)
- Thomas Giesecke (WP13)
- Philipp Hess (WP17)
- Thomas Hickler (WP18)
- Madeline McLeod-Reynolds
- Nick Triozzi (WP20)
Accommodation Info
Participants are expected to make their own lodging arrangements
As of 22 July, there was vacancy for workshop participants at the
We recommend booking your room well in advance of the meeting: note that the workshop begins at 12 noon on 16 September. Alternative options all within a 10-minute walk to the Museum include:
- Tripp Inn Messe Westend
- Hotel an der Messe
- Hotel Beethoven
- Art-Hotel Robert-Mayer
- Hotel West
- Palmenhof
This workshop is run as part of “Past to Future” (P2F). This is a 4-year Horizon Europe research project which launched in March 2025 and brings together 25 partners from a wide-range of disciplines in future climate model development, paleo-climate data collection, and applied mathematics. Our goal is to make optimal use of past climatic information to better understand Earth’s climate response to various kinds of forcing, focusing on abrupt climate transitions and tipping points.
For more details, see https://past2future.org/about-p2f/
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
Grant Agreement Number: 101184070