This workshop on 25-27th November 2026 at the University of Exeter is organised by the EU project “Past to Future” in collaboration with the EU projects “ClimTip“, the ARIA project “AdvanTip” and the Met Office Academic Partnership (MOAP) core strategic research and innovation theme on “Capturing Environmental Complexity”.
The aim of this workshop is to explore the state of the art in understanding how complexity and complex systems thinking can help improve our understanding of past, and prediction of future ocean variability. There will be a particular emphasis on North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean variability and on bringing insights from the various projects together. We plan a number of speakers and time for interaction and discussion.
Schedule
Wednesday 25th November 2026: University of Exeter main (Streatham) campus (link to map)
Harrison Building, Room 101 (building 23 on campus map)
| 12:30-13:30 | Lunch and welcome | |
| 13:30-14:10 | Louise Sime (BAS) | Do our climate models capture global-scale tipping? A view from paleoclimate |
| 14:10-14:30 | Ignacio del Amo (Copenhagen) | Evidence of Self-Organised Criticality in the Greenland Ice-Core Record |
| 14:30-14:50 | Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen (Tromso) | Bayesian time-dependent models for identifying early warning signals |
| 14:50-15:10 | Alison McLaren (BAS) | Water tracers and isotopes in the UK climate model |
| 15:10-15:30 | Break | |
| 15:30-16:10 | Dan Lunt (Bristol) | Past climate and ocean circulation states – CO2 versus paleogeography |
| 16:10-16:30 | Ruth Chapman (LSE) | Ensemble design for exploring a wide range of AMOC tipping responses |
| 16:30-16:50 | Sjoerd Terpstra (Utrecht) | Rate-induced Tipping and Equilibrium AMOC Response to CO2 and Freshwater Forcing |
| 16:50-17:10 | Hugo Lambert (Exeter) | Relationships between feedback components alter estimates of total radiative feedback and climate sensitivity |
| 17:10-17:30 | Discussion | |
| 17:30- | Self-organised dinner |
Thursday 26th November 2026: University of Exeter main (Streatham) campus
SWIoT Computer Lab (building 93 on campus map)
| 9:00-9:40 | Sacha Sinet (Utrecht) | A place for stabilisation alongside tipping cascades |
| 9:40-10:00 | Iacopo P. Longo (Exeter) | Interplay between recurrent and and ramped forcing in a nonautonomous Stochastic differential equation |
| 10:00-10:20 | Nick Watkins (LSE) | Why do we disagree about climate trends? The driven climate system seen through the lenses of statistical inference and stochastic physics. |
| 10:20-10:50 | Break | |
| 10:50-11:10 | Reyk Börner (Utrecht) | What do we mean, climate complexity? |
| 11:10-11:30 | George Datseris (Exeter) | Complexity measures analysis of AMOC timeseries provides novel early warning signals |
| 11:30-12:30 | Discussion | |
| 12:30-13:30 | Lunch |
Meet outside SWIoT
| 13:30-14:30 | Campus walk |
Harrison 170 (building 23 on campus map)
| 14:30-15:10 | Catherine Bradshaw (Met Office/Exeter) | When does climate variability become impactful? Learning from the 4.2 ka interval |
| 15:10-15:30 | Marianne Pietschnig (Exeter) | Examining the separate impacts of AMOC weakening and global warming on future drought and heat stress |
| 15:30-15:50 | Stephan Harrison (Exeter) | Rapid shifts in earth surface responses to past climate change: implications for the UK nuclear regulators |
| 15:50-17:30 | Break and Posters | (Room TBC) |
| 19:00- | Dinner |
Friday 27th November 2026: University of Exeter main (Streatham) campus
Harrison Building, Room 103 (**Room 101 from 11:30) (building 23 on campus map)
| 9:00-9:40 | Mark Williamson (Exeter) | Early warnings of North Atlantic subpolar gyre collapse? |
| 9:40-10:00 | Sneha Kachhara (Exeter) | Multistability in the subpolar gyre |
| 10:00-10:20 | David Stainforth (LSE) | A framework for exploring uncertainty in the impacts of AMOC slow down |
| 10:20-10:50 | Break | |
| 10:50-11:30 | Richard Wood (Met Office) | Capturing the essential physics of the AMOC response to global warming |
| 11:30-11:50 | Jon Baker (Met Office) | Present-day ocean circulation constrains divergent overturning futures |
| 11:50-12:10 | Mike Bell (Met Office) | Evidence the ocean is losing less heat in the northern Atlantic and the AMOC has started to slowly weaken |
| 12:10-12:30 | Discussion/next steps | |
| 12:30- | Self-organised lunch on campus |
Posters
| Hidir Serkendiz (Exeter) | Integrating Earth System Model Simulations and Independent Evidence to Characterize Global Drought Patterns during the 4.2 ka Event |
| Barber Vos (Utrecht) | Can spurious convection-related multistability explain abrupt transitions in climate models? |
| Maria Di Paolo (Exeter) | Can Ocean Tides Spare a Planet from Global Glaciation? Insights from Nonlinear Climate Responses on Exoplanets |
| Marie-Jose Messias (Exeter) | 22 years on, the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment reveals upwelling pathways contributing to the closure of the abyssal overturning |
| Oliver Mehling (Utrecht) | Subpolar gyre transitions in high-resolution climate models |
| Zikun Ren (Bristol) | Muted seasonal swing of the ITCZ under the high-emission scenario beyond 2100 |
| Ana Barbosa Aguiar (Met Office) | Title TBC |
Registration & Accommodation
There is no registration fee, but do not have funds for travel and accommodation. We advise those needing accommodation to book this independently. As space is limited, we ask all attendees to register in advance via the on-line form:
Registration — Workshop: Climate, Oceans and Complexity – Fill in form
Organizers
- Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)
- Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht University)
- Sneha Kachhara (University of Exeter)
- Sjoerd Terpstra (Utrecht University)
- Hemant Khatri (Met Office)
This workshop is run as part of “Past to Future” (P2F). This is a 4-year Horizon Europe research project which launched in March 2025 and brings together 25 partners from a wide-range of disciplines in future climate model development, paleo-climate data collection, and applied mathematics. Our goal is to make optimal use of past climatic information to better understand Earth’s climate response to various kinds of forcing, focusing on abrupt climate transitions and tipping points.
For more details, see https://past2future.org/about-p2f/
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
Grant Agreement Number: 101184070