TERRESTRIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASSESSMENT OF THE CARBON CYCLE AND ITS COORDINATION IN EUROPE (THRAC3E)

Research

The THRAC3E project is structured around nine interlinked Tasks

Task 1: Scientific Foundation

We will establish the scientific basis of the project. This includes

  • reviewing current knowledge of carbon cycle dynamics in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia, with specific focus on inconsistencies between top-down and bottom-up estimates identified in recent assessments (e.g. RECCAP2, GCB) and;
  • Performing a regional and thematic gap analysis covering carbon fluxes, vegetation structure, disturbance processes, and model evaluation, identifying key limitations in current global systems.

This analysis will be used to develop the scientific and technical requirements for the key deliverables of the project:

New Earth Observation Dataset (Task2)

Carbon Benchmarking Dataset (CBD) (Task 3),

High-resolution regional Carbon Budget Simulations (Task 4)

Near real time updates (task 5) 

Task 2: EO Datasets

We will develop a suite of novel Earth Observation datasets in the three study regions critical for regional monitoring of vegetation dynamics, disturbances and the associated carbon fluxes and pools.

Task 3: Carbon Benchmarking Dataset (CBD)

We will integrate the EO datasets into a comprehensive, multivariate Carbon Benchmarking Dataset (CBD). The CBD will adhere to FAIR data publication principles and cover key variables such as biomass, fire emissions, surface fuel loads, and ecosystem fluxes. The efficient standardization and data formatting of the CBD will be supplemented with use case demonstrations showing for rapid calculation of derived indicators like turnover rates and ecosystem water use efficiency.

Task 4: Regional Carbon Budget Simulations

Regional carbon budgets will be developed by combining Dynamic global and Vegetation Models (DGVM) outputs with EO-constrained fluxes and emissions. This includes integration of data-driven flux estimates (from FLUXCOM-X) and biomass dynamics (from TUD-S4F and LSCE) to evaluate net fluxes and their drivers. Regional case studies will support this analysis. Recent decline in the forest sink in Europe; disturbances and biomass change in dense forest in Africa as well as fire-prone and water-limited ecosystems across RECCAP ecoregions: and peat fires, anomalies and oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia.

Task 5: Near-Real-Time Carbon Monitoring Framework

We will develop a prototype near-real-time carbon monitoring framework with a 3ā€“6-month latency to assess biannual carbon anomalies that align with the Global Carbon Budget timeline. We will design a EO-model integration cycle, harmonising fire, biomass, vegetation, and climate datasets which will be evaluated against atmospheric inversion and EO-constrained benchmarks.

Task 6: Scientific Roadmap

Outputs from the first five tasks will be synthesised into a roadmap for extending and scaling THRAC3E beyond the project. This includes identifying remaining gaps, identifying  key priorities and aligning with emerging international needs such as RECCAP-3 and WMO GHG monitoring.

Task 7: Global Coordination

THRAC3E is closely aligned with international carbon monitoring efforts. The project collaborates with RECCAP-3, the Global Carbon Project, ESA, NASA, the EU Joint Research Centre, and other initiatives to ensure scientific collaboration. Scientific exchange will be supported through, training schools, joint sessions and a shared Global Carbon Cycle Forum.

Task 8: Outreach and Communication

A dedicated data portal will provide access to EO products, carbon diagnostics, visualisations, and training materials. THRAC3E will also be engaging with key scientific and policy events, including ICDC, EGU, UNFCCC meetings and initiatives, including the Global Stocktake.

Project Timeline

Milestone 1 (March 2026) – Launch of the project website, delivery of the initial Scientific Baseline (D1.1v1), and first Collaborative Research Actions report (D7.1v1).

Milestone 2 (September 2026) – First Annual Review assessing progress in WP1ā€“WP3, including delivery of the first Advanced EO Research Report, initial Carbon Benchmarking Dataset and Product Dataset Description, plus updated collaboration and dissemination outputs.

Milestone 3 (March 2027) – Delivery and review of the first experimental EO dataset and dataset description, alongside the next Collaborative Research Actions report.

Milestone 4 (September 2027) – Major project integration and second Annual Review, covering updated EO research outputs, benchmarking datasets, scientific development activities, budget database, and rapid updating framework readiness.

Milestone 5 (March 2028) – Delivery of final experimental EO datasets, first rapid-updating experimental dataset and documentation, and penultimate collaboration report.

Milestone 6 (September 2028) – Final project review and closure with ESA, including delivery of final scientific development outputs, budget database, rapid-updating datasets and methodology, scientific roadmap, final collaboration report, and project management deliverables.